While some of my predictions for Bitcoin have come true (the rise of alternative digital currencies, for example), there is one factor that I did not account for.
The international demand for money laundering is enormous. Bitcoin has entered the realm of socially acceptable methods of money laundering. And while money laundering is definitely on the no-no list for most nations, I strongly doubt that even a small percentage of money laundering is caught. I'd love to see some statistical estimations. Money laundering is rarely caught for the same reason tax evasion is seldom caught: there is an enormous amount of money behind reduction of enforcement which has resulted in defunding much serious enforcement. The old boys club is all about laughing at the idea of enforcing laws upon themselves. The kleptocrats of the world don't want their pillaging interrupted. Etc.
So I think bitcoin values will continue to increase (with much fluctuation) because there is too much money behind preventing the international cooperation needed to regulate bitcoin (or any other form of money laundering.) The values will continue to increase until the demand for laundering is satisfied.
This leads to the prediction that other methods of laundering are on the decline. That would be interesting to measure as well. We'll see what happens to the banking industries in small tropical nations that are mostly reliant on laundering revenues.
No comments:
Post a Comment